• By R. Brenner Green, Real Property Capital

Bottoming Out..?


Being a lifelong boater/fisherman/sailor most of which has taken place in the really shallow bays of South Jersey, the term bottoming out always brings to mind the thought of running over a sandbar until you are “hard aground.” The market feels about as hard aground as the Exxon Valdez at the moment. For my metaphor, loan defaults and people generally losing money is the oil that is flowing everywhere. While it would normally be risky to call a bottom (give or take a few weeks) with so much uncertainty and things generally left to the unknown, after thinking it over with the all of the extra time alone, the willingness to throw it on the line and call being near the bottom of the outgoing tide of capital (do you like the way I worked another boating reference in there?) is based on the following. Except for #1, here are some reasons to be optimistic that things are going to start on the upswing over the next few weeks:1. We can’t really get any worse without having much larger problems such as the risk a huge segment of the population not being able to buy gas and groceries which will lead to social unrest. We are already seeing the first signs of this with the protests. This concept is really lost on the academics and billionaires if you read or watch any news, but it’s a fact that something has to give soon.2. Now that most bankers are done processing their PPP applications, many but not quite what I would call “most” are indicating a willingness to look at new business starting some time this week. Two things on this; 1. The level of banking executive involved in processing these applications was really impressive with many high-level people jumping in and rolling up their sleeves. READ MORE

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