
NEW BRUNSWICK, NJ — Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan shared insights on issues ranging from shifts in globalization and demographics to supply chain trends to what's next for New Jersey’s commercial real estate industry during the latest installment of NAIOP New Jersey’s Industry Insights Series, “Geopolitics: Impacts on CRE in Our Region.”
Zeihan combines an expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology and security to help people understand how the world works and to prepare for an uncertain future.
The following are highlights from Zeihan’s thought-provoking presentation, during which he challenged assumptions about a wide range of global and local events.
On the Peaking of Globalization
• “From roughly 1980 to roughly 2015, the world was at this magical demographic moment when its economies were either export-led like Korea today, or consumption-led like Mexico today. It was the height of the globalization experience. Especially after 1990, when the Cold War ended, we saw explosive growth in personal incomes, in trade volumes and values and GDPs – by every measure you could imagine. We set records year after year for 35 years. This is the business environment that we all think of as normal. But it is arguably the most historically abnormal period ever.”
• “Global consumption, global production, global capital supplies, are all peaking, and none of them will recover in our lifetimes. And that was before COVID. Right now, all the consumption-led systems of the world are experiencing a recession. If you’re an exporter, you really don’t have anyone to sell to.”
On the Future of Trade
• “Donald Trump’s trade policies seem almost custom made for the world we find ourselves in. He prioritized five deals: Japan, Korea, Canada, Mexico and the United Kingdom. If you’re going to pick five countries, these are the five you want. This is the majority of the American trade portfolio. That’s it. We’re done.”